Google
 

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

如果美国的底线就是中国必须停工,那么中美南海一战将无可避免而且冲突的烈度会高于人们通常理解的“摩擦

美国派侦察机于上周飞临中国正在扩建的南沙岛礁上空,遭到中国海军的反复警告。美表示今后可能派出力量进入这些岛礁的12海里范围,从而引起战略界和舆论界对中美可能在南海爆发军事冲突的担心。
  那么这种军事冲突实际发生的可能性有多大,以及它们会在什么样的情况下发生呢?还有,一旦发生,它们的烈度会有多高呢?
  首先要看到,随着美军从间接支持菲越到直接向中国在建岛礁发出挑衅,中美两军发生冲突的可能性的确比过去大了。两国在战略上无法释怀,美军在战术上逐渐制造两军摩擦的临界点,除非中国无限退让,否则这种趋势的结果将是危险的。
中国不可能无限退让。那么就要看中美将如何设置各自在此轮南海博弈的底线,以及双方是否能够清楚、尊重对方的底线。
  中国最重要的底线显然是要把岛礁建设继续下去,直到它们完工。如果美国的底线就是中国必须停工,那么中美南海一战将无可避免,而且冲突的烈度会高于人们通常理解的“摩擦”。
  此外中国还有一个底线,那就是美国要尊重中国在南海的领土主权和海洋权益。美国这 方面有一条公开的底线,即美在南海享有“航行自由”。中美的这两条底线对应了各自的原则,但实际操作中双方有一定回旋余地。中美是否会因此而冲突起来,既 取决于一些战略考虑,也会受战术上的临时性因素影响。
  如果美军是想“骚扰”一下中国,向地区展示美国力量在南海的存在,并因不想真打起来而对自己的挑衅行为保持一定克制的话,那么中方的反制也会大体有所克制,双方酿成实际军事冲突的可能性就不大。
  一旦美军有“教训”一下中国的狂妄企图,其挑衅行为带有公开的羞辱性,并且为达此目的已经有在南海“打一仗”的腹稿,将意味着冲突很难避免。中国军队将会为尊严而战。
  可以看出,中国完成岛礁扩建的决心非常清晰、坚定。美方的战略目标是什么相对模糊。南海是保持和平还是发生战斗,责任主要在美国一方。
  美国需要给和平崛起的中国一些空间,我们也要对美方面对中国崛起重大影响而产生的严重心理不适应予以照顾。只要双方都没有在南海走向摊牌的意愿,尤其是美方保持战略上起码的分寸感,局势的危险度就将是有限的。
  在这种情况下,中美军机或军舰即使发生了摩擦,两国和两军也会将它作为“意外事件”来处理,各种应急机制将会启动,如果美军就是要为南海局势的无底线恶化制造事端,就像美在当年越战全面爆发之前炮制出“北部湾事件”那样,情况将另当别论。
  中国现在最需要的是战略定力和坦然。我们不希望与美军事冲突,但如果这一冲突必须 要来,我们就应接受它。在保持对美外交稳定性的同时,我们需要对“有可能”突发的中美南海冲突做认真准备。中方的这种准备既不应高调,也不应低调,要防止 华盛顿形成中国很可能不惜代价对美避战的误判。
南海问题毕竟不是中美关系的全部,中美合作的广阔领域不可避免地会对五角大楼在南海冒进形成牵制。美军在南海看似嚣张,但其背后的政治和社会支持肯定没有中方对其反制时背后的支持强大、持久。想必美军上下对此是清楚的,中国人常说“纸老虎”,其实指的就是这种情况。

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

這裡發生了什麼?情節增厚!帖木兒Tsarnaev出席了美國中央情報局贊助的研討會!

It sounds like this Judy Clarke is the government's "fixer" to get patsies to plead guilty. This is the only way for the FBI to get out of proving they really did have a video showing the planting of the bomb.
Were Clarke really working for Tsarnaev, she could win the case simply by showing the jury the remains of the bomb and backpack, and the photos of both Tsarnaev brothers taken at the scene before the blast, which clearly show the brothers were not the source of the backpack with the bomb!



At top, the remains of the bomb backpack. Note the black color and white square patch. At bottom, the Tsarnaev brothers are on the left, the "Khaki" man with the backback identical to the bomb backpack is on the right.  



Notice the Tsarnaev brothers photographed at the scene prior to the bombing. Their backpacks are grey, with no square label. The man on the right, part of a team all dressed identically, wears a black backpack with the square white label.


And more tellingly, this third man was photographed after the bombing WITHOUT his backpack.
It is also now apparent that the much cited video that supposedly showed Dzhokhar Tsarnaev planting a bomb does not exist, but was reported to support the official story and taint the jury pool.

When Martin Luther King was assassinated, Patsy James Earl Ray was told by his government-appointed attorney that if he did not challenge the official story and pled guilty, Ray would get a short prison sentence. Of course, the judge sentenced James Earl Ray to life without parole then refused to allow Ray to change his plea! I suspect the same thing is happening here. Clarke has likely told Dzhokhar Tsarnaev that if he pleads guilty and says his brother made him do it, he will get a light sentence. And Dzhokhar Tsarnaev won't know how badly he is being screwed until it is too late.



The plot thickens! Tamerlane Tsarnaev attended a CIA-sponsored workshop!

Friday, December 19, 2014

它的空乘人有一杯熱水和方便麵扔在她的臉上

它的空乘人有一杯熱水和方便麵扔在她的臉上
她的頭推到頭頂的儲物櫃的爭吵爆發

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

和所有為了什麼?



沒有更多的憲法第一修正案,無證從事間諜活動的美國人,公開審判,刑訊逼供提取。

Friday, October 31, 2014

哇!這些女孩是最令人印象深刻






點擊寬屏的最佳觀賞

Friday, October 24, 2014

這是最好的最好的。太搞笑了,不容忽視。

Parking Tickets

Parking Tickets
Can I pay my tickets here?

Let 'em Hear it

Add to Technorati Favorites

Gottcha, scofflaw

Gottcha, scofflaw

Hottest T-Shirts on the Web

Loading...

Favorite Scofflaw Movies

  • The Godfather
  • The Usual Suspects
  • Dirty Harry
  • The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
  • The Treasure of The Sierra Madre
  • The Long Good Friday
  • Pacific Heights
  • Midnight Cowboy
  • Highway61
  • Duel
  • Catch Me if You Can
  • Glengarry Glenn Ross